Analysis & How it Works
What is the Monte Carlo Simulator?
The Monte Carlo Simulator is a **risk simulation tool**. Instead of telling you if you will win your *next* bet, it shows you thousands of possible "futures" for your bankroll if you follow a specific strategy over a long period. It's like a "dress rehearsal" for your betting career without risking real money.
Why is it Useful?
- Bankroll Management: It helps you see if your staking percentage is too aggressive or too conservative.
- Risk Assessment: It shows you the actual probability of losing your entire bankroll (Risk of Ruin), even if your strategy is profitable in the long run.
- Psychological Preparation: It prepares you for the natural ups and downs (drawdowns) you will encounter, so you don't panic during a losing streak.
Explanation of Parameters
- Number of Simulations: How many times the "experiment" will run. 10,000 is a good number for reliable results.
- Bets per Simulation: How many bets are placed in each individual simulation.
- Starting Bankroll (€): Your initial capital.
- Commission on Wins (%): The fee (e.g., 5% on exchanges) deducted *only* from winning bets.
- Average Decimal Odds: The average odds of the bets you plan to place.
- Estimated Win Probability (0-1): Your estimated success rate. **This is the most important input!** It must be your own, realistic estimate. If the odds are 2.00 (50%), but you believe the true probability is 55% (0.55), then you have "value".
- Staking Strategy: The method you use to determine your stake size.