Arbitrage & Hedging Explained

Learn how to lock in guaranteed profits and manage your risk like a pro.

What is Arbitrage (Surebetting)?

Arbitrage betting, or "surebetting," is a strategy that involves placing bets on **all possible outcomes** of an event across different bookmakers. When the odds are mispriced between bookies, a situation can arise where you are guaranteed to make a profit regardless of the result.

For example, in a tennis match:

  • Bookmaker A offers Player 1 to win at odds of **2.10**.
  • Bookmaker B offers Player 2 to win at odds of **2.10**.

The total implied probability is `(1/2.10) + (1/2.10) = 95.2%`. Because this is less than 100%, a risk-free profit of 4.8% is possible by staking the correct amounts on each player.

Arbitrage is a pre-game strategy. It's about exploiting price differences between competing bookmakers before an event starts.

What is Hedging (Trading Out)?

Hedging is a strategy used to manage risk or lock in profit on a bet you have **already placed**. It is most common on betting exchanges. You "hedge" by placing a bet on the opposite outcome of your original bet after the odds have moved in your favor.

For example:

  1. You place a €10 "Back" bet on a team to win at odds of **4.00**. Your potential profit is €30.
  2. Your team scores a goal, and their odds to win drop. The "Lay" odds (betting against them) are now **2.00**.
  3. You can now place a Lay bet. By calculating the correct stake, you can guarantee a profit whether your team goes on to win or if they end up drawing or losing.

This is effectively what "cashing out" does, but doing it manually often provides better value.

How This Connects to Our Tools

These advanced strategies require quick and accurate calculations. Our tools are designed for exactly this:

  • The **Surebet Calculator** helps you execute arbitrage strategies by instantly calculating the required stakes for each outcome to guarantee a profit.
  • The **Hedge Calculator** (specifically the "Same Exchange Hedging" tab) is perfect for trading out. Enter your original bet and the current opposing odds, and it will tell you exactly what to stake to lock in your profit.
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