Kelly Criterion Calculator

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Value & Stake Calculation

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Analysis & How it Works

The Kelly Criterion Calculator is a tool used for optimal bet sizing in sports betting or investments, aiming to maximize long-term profit while controlling risk.

Kelly Criterion

Calculates how much you should stake based on the probability of success and the odds of the bet. The formula for Decimal Odds is:

$$ f^* = \frac{bp - q}{b} $$

Where:

  • \(f^*\) = the percentage of your bankroll you should stake
  • \(b\) = odds − 1 (Decimal odds minus 1)
  • \(p\) = probability of success (your probability the selection will win)
  • \(q\) = probability of failure = 1 − p

The result tells you what percentage of your available bankroll to stake to maximize long-term return.

Example:

Decimal odds = 2.50

Estimated probability of winning = 50% (0.5)

b = 2.5 − 1 = 1.5

f* = (1.5 × 0.5 − 0.5) ÷ 1.5 = (0.75 − 0.5) ÷ 1.5 ≈ 0.1667

You should stake **16.7%** of your bankroll on this bet.