The Monte Carlo Simulator: Your Betting Crystal Ball

This isn't just a calculator. It's a professional risk analysis tool that lets you see the future of your betting strategy.

The Questions Every Bettor Asks

Have you ever asked yourself:

  • "Is my betting strategy actually profitable long-term, or have I just been lucky?"
  • "Am I betting the right amount? Is 2% of my bankroll too aggressive, or too safe?"
  • "What is my real, statistical risk of losing my entire bankroll?"

Guessing the answers to these questions is the difference between a gambler and a strategic bettor. The Monte Carlo Simulator is designed to replace guessing with data-driven answers.

Think of it as a flight simulator for your bankroll. It allows you to "fly" your strategy through thousands of different scenarios—including winning streaks, losing streaks, and everything in between—to see how it performs under all conditions.

How Our Calculator Works: A Look Inside

The process is incredibly powerful and unfolds in four key steps:

  1. You Define the Rules: You provide your complete strategy via the form. This includes your starting bankroll, your average odds, your estimated win probability, and your staking plan (e.g., "I bet €10 on every bet"). This is your "flight plan."
  2. We Simulate One "Betting Life": The calculator then "lives out" a full betting sequence (e.g., 100 bets) following your exact rules. For each of the 100 bets, it uses a random number generator to decide the win or loss based on your specified win probability.
  3. We Do It Again... 10,000 Times: This is the magic. The calculator doesn't just live out that 100-bet career once; it repeats the entire process thousands of times. By simulating every possibility, we eliminate the effect of short-term luck and reveal the true statistical nature of your strategy.
  4. We Analyze the Multiverse of Outcomes: Finally, the tool gathers the final bankroll from all 10,000 simulated "lives" and performs a deep statistical analysis on this huge dataset, giving you a powerful and easy-to-understand summary.

Interpreting the Results: Turning Data into Decisions

The output gives you actionable insights:

  • Risk of Ruin (%): This is the most important number on the page. It shows the cold, hard probability of your strategy leading to bankruptcy. A profitable strategy with a high Risk of Ruin is a failed strategy.
  • Chance of Profit (%): Tells you how consistently your strategy ends up in the green. A 75% chance of profit means that in 3 out of 4 simulated careers, you ended with more money than you started with.
  • Average vs. Median Bankroll: The "Average" can be skewed by a few massive wins. The "Median" is often a more realistic, middle-of-the-road outcome.
  • The Histogram: This is a visual map of your potential futures. A tall, thin graph means your results are consistent and predictable (low risk). A short, wide graph means the outcomes are all over the place (high risk, high reward).

Stop guessing. Stop hoping. Use the **Monte Carlo Simulator** to test your ideas, manage your risk, and approach betting with the confidence of a strategist.

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